A new Quinnipiac poll shows Trump slightly ahead of Biden in a hypothetical 2024 election, but voters are skeptical about the polling methodology and results.
Note: Some quotes in this piece have been lightly edited for grammar.
The Poll in Question
A Quinnipiac University poll released on Tuesday indicated Trump and Biden are in a tight race for Pennsylvania should they become the presidential candidates. The poll showed Trump slightly ahead at 47% of voters, with Biden at 45%.
A Key State
Pennsylvania is a battleground state, making it a primary focus for presidential hopefuls in 2024. It’s also President Biden’s home turf. He took the state in the 2020 election by just over 80,000 votes.
Upon the poll’s release, voters flocked to the internet to give their feedback. Many were skeptical about how the poll was conducted and what it found.
A few savvy readers pointed out that a shift amongst younger and middle-aged voters was responsible for the move in Trump’s favor. Forty-seven percent of those ages 35-49 and 54% of those ages 40- 64 said they supported Trump over Biden.
That Can’t Be Right
“That has to be an outlier…65+ are overwhelmingly for Biden, but 18-35 only prefer Biden by a few points? I don’t believe that,” one poster said. “I really don’t think Gen Z is in this poll. Gen Z won’t let Trump win,” another added.
While Gen Z tends to lean left, millennials are the bigger generation of concern for the Democratic party. Over the last several years, elder millennials may have started drifting to the right.
Of course, many were quick to say that voters under 64 years old are also the least likely to pick up their phone for an unknown number, making this poll and others like it less relevant. Quinnipiac polls are done using random digit dialing.
Don’t Trust Them
“Pollsters didn’t do a great job in 2016 or 2022. I have no faith in polls anymore,” one poster said, echoing the sentiment of many other commenters. “Never trust the polls,” wrote another.
Too Early To Call
A few commenters noted that we are still over a year from the 2024 presidential election, which leaves a lot of time for things to change. As one person said, “Still plenty of time until the election season really kicks off.”
Let It Play Out
The political landscape could shift substantially, given that Trump currently faces four criminal indictments. “These polls are all meaningless until Trump has his first felony conviction after one of his trials,” one user said.
Love a Bad Guy
However, there’s evidence to suggest that Trump’s support only grows with each indictment, making it unclear whether a conviction would hurt or help his candidacy.
Margin of Error
Still, many commenters pointed out that two percentage points are within the margin of error, “We aren’t going to be fooled this time on lack of consideration for the margin of error,” one commenter noted. “This poll could actually be Biden 49 Trump 43.”
Too Close for Comfort
All the same, Trump and Biden in a neck-and-neck race isn’t what Biden supporters want to see. “It just got real,” one commenter said.
Trump supporters seem less surprised by the poll. Trump’s campaign manager said in response to an earlier poll showing similar results, Democrats “have continued to take for granted American blue-collar workers.” And they’re the ones who traditionally would have voted for Biden.
A Bad Sign
Regardless of party affiliation, users noted that this poll and others like it indicate that the country isn’t in a good place. In previous polls, many voters stated their dislike of both candidates, and a few doomsayers said the deadlocked race shows that democracy is in trouble.
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