Just because a state historically votes blue or red doesn’t mean it will stay that way forever. Changing demographics and shifting party lines can cause deep blue states to turn bright red and vice versa. Americans predict which states are most likely to see a shift in the near future.
Note: Some quotes in this piece have been lightly edited for grammar.
“If you’re looking for an under-the-radar decade-long project for the Democratic Party, I’d target Kansas,” one person said, explaining that Kansas doesn’t have the racial or religious undertones that other deep red states tend to exhibit.
A few other commenters thought Oregon was a prime candidate to flip from blue to red. “Portland’s crime & homelessness issues have frustrated even the hipster set,” one person explained.
Some thought that Washington might shift towards the GOP in the next election. “Vancouver, WA, is sucking up a lot of suburbanites,” one person pointed out. Others mentioned Eastern Washington’s support for Republicans.
Texas has witnessed an influx of residents over the past few years. This led some to speculate that Democrats could flip the state over the next decade. “Democrats have a lot of opportunity to gain with suburban Dallas, Houston and San Antonio voters,” one person theorized.
Alaska is a historically red state, but several people pointed out that its citizens tend to be more moderate than conservative. “I think they will go more to the middle and keep trending blue,” one person said.
Georgia used to be a deep red state, but in recent elections, it’s looked more purple. Many believe it will continue to shift away from the GOP. As one person said, “Georgia is quickly trending to blue-state status.”
Arizona is a purple state that could shift to deep blue over the next few election cycles. “Arizona has a lot of ‘former Republicans’ and ‘right-leaning moderates,” one person explained. These voters have “now voted for Democrats given the lack of moderation from Arizona Republicans.”
A few people thought Wisconsin would flip from red to blue. “If the Democrats win the upcoming State Supreme Court race and gain a majority and if the clear Republican gerrymandered maps get overturned for a fair one, I think it’ll trend blue,” one person commented.
Ohio is considered a swing state, but over the past few election cycles, it’s looked more red than blue. Some said it will shift back to a blue state in the future. “Democrats have a lot of room to grow and opportunity to make up ground with voters in suburban Cincinnati and suburban Columbus,” one commenter explained.
Montana is currently a deep red state, but a few people thought that could change. “I think we saw signs in the House races in Montana in 2022 that there is more of a Democratic base than given credit for,” one person said.
11: New Hampshire
Several people thought changing demographics would take New Hampshire into deep blue territory. “Tons of Massachusetts people moved to New Hampshire,” one person explained. “I think in 5 years it’ll be blue.”
Many thought Nevada was on track to flip towards Republicans. They noted that the Silver State is experiencing an influx of retirement-aged citizens who tend to vote red.
Over the last three elections, Maine’s electoral votes have gone to the Democratic candidate, but historically, the Pine Tree State has voted Republican. Many thought it might shift back to red in the coming elections.
14: New York
A few commenters thought New York could shift from blue to red in the future, noting that Democrats now hold a much slimmer majority in the state. “New York could be in reach if Democrats fumble the bag there,” one person said.
15: New Mexico
“As the GOP modernizes to become more appealing to minorities, particularly the Latino community, New Mexico is likely to shift red big time,” one commenter pointed out. They also noted that New Mexico governor and senate races have grown closer over the past few elections, indicating a rise in GOP support.
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