A recent poll is one of several showing Biden losing in key battleground states against Trump. Americans question whether or not Biden can turn the tides over the next year.
Note: Some quotes in this piece have been lightly edited for grammar.
According to a Siena College poll released by the New York Times, Biden trails Trump in Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. The same poll released one year out from the 2020 election correctly predicted five out of six battleground states.
Cause For Concern
“I’ve not been terribly worried about the election until now,” one person noted. “NYT/Siena polls were very accurate in 2022 (even if their own reporters doubted them), so I’m very concerned about Biden’s standing, especially as other polls show similar results.”
Interestingly, the poll shows that Biden has lost a significant proportion of voters under 30 to Trump. He’s also lost many non-white voters. Both of these demographics were key to helping Biden win in 2020.
Too Old, Too Poor
The poll also revealed that voters prefer Trump when it comes to handling economic issues. On top of that, 71% of respondents, including the majority of Biden supporters, said the current president was too old to lead an effective second term.
Just Looks Old
Many pushed back on Biden being too old, noting that Trump (77) is almost as old as Biden (80). “Part of it is that Biden has already just visually aged over the last couple of years, and he looks dreadful,” one commenter said.
It’s a Meme
Others said it didn’t matter that the age gap wasn’t actually very big. “The memetic opinion that Biden is senile is set in concrete. How are you going to turn that around?” one commenter asked.
Don’t Worry, Yet
A few people thought the election was too far away to worry about. “Biden has to navigate wisely in the months to come,” one person said. “I think he will regain support once people realize they could face another four years of Trump.”
But If It’s Not Trump
A few people worried that Trump wouldn’t be the Republican candidate. If that happens, they predicted Biden stood no chance of winning. As one person put it, “If the Republicans wake up and nominate Nikki Haley, Biden is toast.”
Older, Weaker, Slower
Others noted that this poll was significant. “Polls this far out aren’t super predictive,” one commenter admitted. “But they aren’t meaningless either. Clearly, voters are saying that they think Biden is weaker, older, and slower than Trump, that he can’t stand up to the rest of the world, and that he tanked the economy.”
“Biden was significantly more popular in 2020,” another person pointed out. “And that election was deceptively close because of the minuscule margins in battleground states. There’s really no reason to look at this poll and come away with any conclusion other than him being likely to lose, even if a win is still possible.”
Change of Tune
Some thought there was still hope for Biden if Democrats were willing to change their messaging. “In this coming election, we Democrats need to come off our high horse and meet the voters where they are,” one said. “So many Dems drip with contempt when speaking about Trump voters. Our air of superiority will doom us.”
Fix the Economy
Others thought that Biden would need to fix the economy in order to secure a win. “Biden needs to either debut the best possible plan to cut back inflation ever seen or step aside for someone willing to tackle that issue. Period. If he doesn’t, he is gifting the election to Trump,” said one person.
New Candidate Please
Still, many thought Biden was unlikely to turn it around. “The key figure here is that a generic Dem outperforms Biden by so, so, so much,” one person pointed out. “The reality communicated here is that voters have rejected Biden, full stop.”
A few noted that Biden has been struggling with low approval ratings for much of his presidency. “Biden’s below 40% now and shows no signs of recovering anytime soon. He’s been around 40% for nearly two years now. Incumbent presidents who poll below 40% tend to lose reelection,” one person noted.
Felt Better Before
One person thought that given economic factors like high grocery and gas prices, a Biden loss (and subsequent Trump win) was unavoidable. “In terms of how people perceive reality, you cannot deny that inflation and interest rates felt better under Trump,” they went on to say.
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